OrthoVirginia Demand Map

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OrthoVirginia North DEMAND MAP

Where will demand outstrip physician capacity? Color = chosen metric, size = clinic visit volume.

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Demand at risk % of visit volume tied to physicians likely to retire in horizon Avg physician age Weighted by half-days worked at office Aging-workforce share % of physicians age 60+ Visit volume Annualized MD visits per office Capacity utilization Visits/room/day ÷ benchmark Facilities expansion urgency Saturation × future demand (young providers + area growth + population age) Hiring urgency Retirement-driven hiring need, discounted by young pipeline

Retirement horizon

5 yrs

Honors explicit retirement dates first; otherwise uses age-tier probability of retiring within the horizon.

Capacity benchmark

10 v/rm/day

Visits/room/day that you call "fully booked." Industry benchmarks: 8–12 productive, 12–15 high-volume. Affects capacity utilization, headroom, and expand/backfill recommendations.

Staff type

Specialty select all · clear

Offices · sorted by current metric

Office	Metric	Visits

Competitor overlay

Show competing surgeons Orthopaedic surgeons in NoVA from NPPES, OV NPIs excluded

Demographic overlay · ACS 2024 5-yr by ZIP

None Median household income $ per household, by ZCTA polygon Age 65+ share % of population age 65 or older Population growth 2018→2023 Real 5-yr pop change — official Census ACS Recent housing share % of units built since 2010 (development intensity) Total population Raw catchment size per ZIP

Data: ACS 2023 5-yr (current snapshot) + ACS 2018 5-yr (growth baseline) via the official Census API. Growth = (pop₂₀₂₃ − pop₂₀₁₈) / pop₂₀₁₈.

Notes & methodology

Demand at risk = sum of visits attributable to each physician at the office × probability of retiring within the horizon, divided by office annualized visits. Per-physician visits are proportional to half-days/wk at that office.

Retirement probability uses explicit retirement dates when known. Otherwise an age-band tier is applied to age-at-horizon-end: 70+ → 95%, 65–69 → 70%, 60–64 → 35%, 55–59 → 10%, else 0%.

Office coordinates are approximate centroids. North Arlington shows no visit data (not in the volume sheet) — sized as a placeholder.